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An airstrike on an Iranian embassy complex in Damascus resulted in the deaths of seven Iranian officials, including two elite military commanders.
The attack, widely believed to be Israel’s doing, marks the largest assault on Iranian targets since the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, a top Iranian commander, in Baghdad in 2020. Despite Iran’s reluctance to engage in war with Israel and the United States, experts suggest that Iran may feel compelled to respond.
Israel has a history of targeting Iranian and Iranian-allied interests in Syria as part of its “campaign between wars” strategy, aimed at deterring and eliminating emerging threats to its security.
The frequency of these attacks has increased since October 7, when Iran-backed Hamas attacked Israel, leading to 1,200 casualties and 250 abductions, triggering a significant Israeli offensive in Gaza.
Monday's attack represents a significant escalation, as it targeted an embassy compound and resulted in the death of a senior commander in Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC). Iran views this as an attack on its sovereign territory, in accordance with international law.
While Israel has not officially claimed responsibility for the attack, it has argued that the target was a “military building of Quds forces” — a unit of the IRGC responsible for foreign operations.
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari stated to CNN, “This is no consulate, and this is no embassy.”
A direct Iranian attack on Israel in retaliation is deemed unlikely, as it would invite a reciprocal attack on Iranian soil and potentially escalate into a direct confrontation with the United States. Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has held the US responsible for the attack.
The Swiss chargé d’affaires in Tehran, representing US interests in Iran, was summoned by Iran’s foreign ministry early Tuesday, with Amir-Abdollahian stating that “an important message was relayed to the American administration as the Zionist regime’s supporter.”
This suggests that Iran holds the US accountable for Israel’s actions, mirroring the US's attribution of responsibility to Iran for the actions of Iraqi militias, according to Trita Parsi, executive vice president at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, DC.
Iran has been engaged in a proxy conflict with the US through allied militias in Syria and Iraq. However, this conflict has de-escalated since the killing of three US servicemembers in Jordan in January, which led to the US carrying out numerous strikes on at least seven locations across Iraq and Syria in retaliation.
Parsi noted that Iran's rhetoric since the embassy attack indicates that the truce with the US may be over.
This could potentially put American troops in the Middle East at risk, as the Israeli attack on Iran might shift the focus from Gaza to Syria and Iran.
While US forces in the region operate close to Iran-allied militias, an attack on the US in response to Israeli action would leave Israel unpunished and could lead to a direct confrontation between Tehran and Washington, which both parties are unlikely to desire.
The last direct attack by Iran on US interests occurred in 2020 when Iran launched a barrage of ballistic missiles at a US base in Iraq in response to Soleimani’s killing. The strike was the most significant attack on a base housing US troops in decades.
Washington has attempted to distance itself from Monday’s Israeli attack. A US National Security Council spokesperson told CNN that the Biden administration was not involved and had no prior knowledge of the strike, emphasizing that the US has “communicated this directly to Iran.”
Mobilizing proxies against Israel
Lebanon's Hezbollah is Iran's most capable proxy in fighting Israel, believed to possess some 150,000 rockets and precision-guided munitions in close proximity to Israel.
The militia has demonstrated its ability to strike deep into Israeli territory.
However, Israel has been preparing for a potential conflict with Hezbollah for months, evacuating more than 40 communities in its north. While both sides have engaged in skirmishes along their borders, with Israel even striking as deep as 100 kilometers into Lebanon last month, experts doubt Hezbollah’s willingness to engage in a full-scale war with Israel.
Hezbollah has threatened that Monday’s strike will be met with “punishment and revenge,” but experts remain skeptical about its readiness for a major confrontation with Israel.
Iran could also mobilize other allied militias in the region, but their ability to harm Israel is limited due to their distance.
Yemen’s Houthis have been disrupting Israeli and global trade through the Red Sea and have made unsuccessful attempts to launch missiles towards Israel. Iraqi militias, in closer proximity than the Houthis, have also attempted, mostly unsuccessfully, to target Israel.
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the Chatham House think tank in London, suggested that Iran is likely to use its proxy forces along with diplomatic efforts to isolate Israel but is unlikely to escalate significantly.
Referring to the network of pro-Iran militias in the region, she said, “The Axis of Resistance can be activated,” adding that they are unlikely to retaliate with major attacks but rather with a “cascade of responses.”
Attacking Israeli interests abroad
Following previous attacks on Iran, Israel has increased security at its embassies, anticipating retaliatory strikes on its interests in foreign countries.
Israel has previously accused Iran of attempting to target its diplomatic missions abroad in response to alleged Israeli operations against Iranian scientists, officials, and nuclear facilities. Iran has denied these accusations.
In 1992, a bombing at the Israeli embassy in Argentina resulted in 29 fatalities. Israel attributed the attack to Hezbollah and Iran.
In 2012, Israeli diplomats were targeted in India, Georgia, and Thailand, with Israel and others blaming Iran, which denied involvement.
Iranian parliament member Jalal Rashidi Kochi suggested that Iran should retaliate by targeting the Israeli embassy in Azerbaijan.
Vakil believes it is unlikely that Iran would attack Israeli diplomatic missions abroad, as Tehran likely wants to maintain whatever goodwill it has garnered from the attack.
“Since October 7, there has been a lot of criticism that Iran has lost its deterrence capability,” she said, suggesting that Tehran will seek to demonstrate its capability without provoking a larger conflict.
Avoiding direct military action
Israel is believed to have increased its targeting of Iranian officials since October 7. Iran's response has been primarily rhetorical, with few threats materializing into action.
Analysts suggest that Iran may feel compelled to act given the escalatory nature of Monday’s attack but caution that Tehran may be playing into a trap. A broader conflict involving Iran could draw in Western nations on Israel’s side at a time when Israel faces increasing isolation due to its actions in Gaza.
Vali Nasr, a Middle East academic and former adviser to the State Department, wrote that “Now the ball is in Iran’s court,” suggesting that Iran may choose to wait and not allow the focus to shift from Gaza to Syria and Iran.
Vakil believes that Iran is unlikely to respond with a direct military attack. Instead, it will likely capitalize on international condemnation of the Gaza conflict, stoking fears of a regional war to isolate Israel further.
“I think Iran is going to play multiple cards simultaneously,” she said, including cyberattacks, low-level military confrontations via proxies, and diplomatic offensives.
Iran has requested an urgent UN Security Council meeting to den