More than a fortnight prior to a terrorist attack in the outskirts of Moscow, the U.S. government informed Russian officials that Crocus City Hall, a renowned concert venue, was a potential target, as per U.S. officials acquainted with the situation.
The detailed nature of the warning indicates Washington’s confidence in intelligence suggesting that the Islamic State was planning an attack that posed a significant threat to civilians.
This directly contradicts Moscow’s assertion that the U.S. warnings were too vague to preempt the assault.
The U.S. identification of Crocus concert hall as a potential target, a detail not previously disclosed, raises questions about why Russian authorities did not take stronger measures to safeguard the venue, where more than 140 people were killed by gunmen who also set fire to the building.
A faction of the Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the attack, the deadliest in Russia in two decades. While U.S. officials have stated that the Islamic State-Khorasan (ISIS-K) group "bears sole responsibility," Russian President Vladimir Putin has attempted to shift the blame to Ukraine.
The attack has tarnished the image of strength and security that the Russian leader seeks to project and has exposed significant weaknesses in the nation’s security apparatus, which has been preoccupied with more than two years of conflict in Ukraine.
Domestically, Putin's operatives seem more focused on suppressing political dissent and opposition than on thwarting terrorist plots, according to analysts and observers of Russian politics. Putin himself publicly dismissed U.S. warnings just three days prior to the March 22 attack, labeling them as "outright blackmail" and attempts to "intimidate and destabilize our society."
The U.S. officials familiar with the information shared with Moscow spoke anonymously to discuss sensitive conversations and intelligence.
A National Security Council spokesperson declined to comment on the matter. Previously, the NSC acknowledged that the United States had provided information "about a planned terrorist attack in Moscow," without specifying Crocus City Hall as a possible target.
A Kremlin spokesperson did not respond to questions from The Washington Post about the warning regarding Crocus City Hall.
However, Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, stated to reporters in Moscow that the information provided by the United States was "too general and did not allow us to fully identify those who committed this terrible crime." Naryshkin claimed that in response to the U.S. intelligence, Russia "took appropriate measures to prevent" an attack. However, video footage from the scene shows the gunmen facing little resistance.
Russian media reported that specialized police units did not arrive until over an hour after the shooting began, and then waited more than 30 minutes before entering the building, by which time the attackers had already fled.
While it is common for Washington to share information about potential terrorist attacks with foreign countries under a policy known as the "duty to warn," it is unusual to provide information about specific targets to an adversary, officials and experts noted.
Such disclosures risk revealing how the United States obtained the intelligence, potentially jeopardizing clandestine surveillance activities or human sources.
However, the information pointing to an attack on the concert hall also indicated a potential threat to Americans in Russia. On March 7, the U.S. Embassy publicly announced that it was "monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts," and advised U.S. citizens "to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours."
The United States shared this information with Russia the day before the public warning, according to sources familiar with the matter. Naryshkin stated that "U.S.
intelligence agencies" provided the information to the FSB, Russia’s state security service.
Under the "duty to warn" policy, the United States has also recently shared terrorism information with another adversary, Iran. In January, U.S. officials warned that the Islamic State was planning to carry out attacks in the country, according to U.S. officials.
The intelligence was specific enough that it might have helped Iranian authorities disrupt twin suicide bombings that killed at least 95 people in the city of Kerman.
The Islamic State, which views Iran’s majority Shiite Muslim population as apostates, attacked a gathering of thousands of mourners commemorating the fourth anniversary of the death of Maj.
Gen. Qasem Soleimani, who was killed by a U.S. drone strike in Iraq in 2020.
Despite the lack of effective security at Crocus City Hall, there are indications that the Russian government initially took Washington’s warning seriously — which also included information about Islamic State plans to attack a synagogue, according to one U.S. official.
The day after Moscow received that information, the FSB announced that it had foiled an Islamic State attack on a synagogue in Moscow.
Islam Khalilov, 15, who claimed to be working in the concert hall’s coat check on the night of the attack, stated that Crocus staff had been informed about the possibility of a terrorist attack shortly after the March 7 public warning. Khalilov said in an interview with Dmitry Yegorov, a well-known Russian sports journalist, posted on YouTube that they were warned about potential terrorist attacks and instructed on what to do and where to take people.
Khalilov also mentioned stricter security checks at the venue, including the use of trained dogs.
The reason why security was not heightened and sustained after the initial warning remains unclear. Some U.S. officials speculate that Russian security services, seeing no attack materialize in the days following March 7, may have assumed that the U.S. information was inaccurate and subsequently lowered their guard.
Putin ridiculed terrorism warnings from what he termed "a number of official Western structures" during a meeting with top FSB officials on March 19.
"You are well aware of them, so I will not go into details at this point," Putin stated, according to an official Kremlin transcript.
Putin emphasized that the FSB’s primary focus was in Ukraine, as part of what he described as Russia’s "special military operation."
Putin equated Ukrainian forces with terrorists and suggested that they posed a direct threat to Russia.
"The neo-Nazi Kyiv regime has also switched to terrorist tactics," Putin said, including "attempts to recruit perpetrators of subversive and terrorist attacks targeting critical infrastructure and public spaces in Russia."
Following the apprehension of suspects in the Crocus City Hall attack, Putin and other senior leaders claimed that Kyiv had recruited the operatives and arranged for their escape to Ukraine, allegations that U.S. and Ukrainian officials have denied.
Russia has previously accepted assistance from the United States.
Twice during the administration of President Donald Trump, Putin thanked the Americans for sharing information that helped thwart terrorist attacks in St. Petersburg in 2017 and 2019.