The López household began to flood with seawater as the Gulf of Mexico surged and winter storms intensified.
Cristina López and her family made the difficult choice to relocate following a severe storm in November, understanding that their residence in the fishing village of El Bosque would eventually succumb to the ocean's advance.
"There was no alternative," stated López, who now resides roughly 20 minutes away.
Driven by climate change, rising sea levels, and more frequent and intense storms, thousands of miles of Mexico's coastline along both the Gulf and the Pacific Ocean are eroding. Across the country, which is home to nearly 130 million people, drought is depleting reservoirs and leading to severe water shortages. Deadly heat is straining both people and crops, while aging infrastructure struggles to cope.
However, the leading presidential candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, an environmental scientist and co-author of the 2007 Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, is unlikely to prioritize climate change in her campaign ahead of the June 2 election.
This is largely due to President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's policies, which diverge from global trends away from fossil fuels. López Obrador, one of Mexico’s most popular leaders in generations, has steered the country toward increased fossil fuel production, undermining investments in renewable energy projects. Consequently, Sheinbaum, who served as Mexico City's mayor until last June, has largely avoided discussing global warming, despite Mexico being the world’s 11th-largest oil producer.
At the core of Sheinbaum's silence lies a dilemma faced by many leaders confronting climate change: should they prioritize immediate political and economic needs or address the long-term changes vital for human survival?
Sheinbaum has expressed her belief in science, technology, and renewable energy. However, she has also indicated that if elected, she would continue to increase power generation by state-owned companies, many of which rely on oil and coal.
In contrast, her main opponent, Xóchitl Gálvez, a former opposition senator, has pledged to promote private investment in the energy sector and has proposed transforming the state-run oil and gas company to also produce electricity using renewable sources such as geothermal energy.
Whoever wins the election will be Mexico's first female president.
WATER SCARCITY
As the election nears, a worsening water crisis is making it increasingly difficult for Sheinbaum and her main opponent to ignore Mexico’s climate-related challenges.
Mexico City, with its sprawling population, relies on overexploited underground aquifers and the extensive Cutzamala System, a network of canals, dams, and reservoirs, for its water supply. Persistent drought, exacerbated by climate change and El Niño, has caused the system to reach record lows. Neighborhoods not connected to the system are experiencing water scarcity due to hot temperatures and delayed water deliveries. Even affluent areas like Polanco, often referred to as the "Beverly Hills of Mexico," are facing shortages.
In Xochimilco, located in the city’s south, Ana Maria Sandoval worries about the worsening water cuts and the impact of climate change on her 10-year-old grandson's future. Despite her concerns, she holds some hope for Sheinbaum, a member of López Obrador’s Morena party.
"I think she’s going to do something," Sandoval said. "I’m going to vote for her to see if she follows through and at least helps us store rainwater."
LÓPEZ OBRADOR’S FOSSIL FUEL AGENDA
Under López Obrador, Mexico has prioritized fossil fuel production in an effort to nationalize power generation in a country still heavily reliant on fuel imports. This is exemplified by his flagship — yet to be operational — Olmeca oil refinery, located just 50 miles west of the mostly vanished town of El Bosque in Tabasco.
López Obrador’s administration also acquired a refinery in Texas and passed legislation — some of which Mexico’s Supreme Court recently struck down — to limit the amount of electricity private gas and renewable energy facilities can sell. This policy would have favored the state-owned electrical power company over private power firms.
When challenged about his administration’s environmental record, López Obrador has pointed to renovated hydroelectric plants, his reforestation program (which has faced scrutiny), and a solar energy project in the state of Sonora, among other initiatives.
At a White House climate summit, López Obrador highlighted his administration’s efforts to address climate change, promising that "next year, we will be fulfilling the commitment to produce more clean and renewable energies in our country."
However, scientists at Climate Action Tracker, a group that evaluates nations’ emissions reduction commitments, have criticized Mexico’s retreat from its already modest climate targets, downgrading its rating to “critically insufficient” in 2021 and 2022, the lowest level.
SHEINBAUM'S CAMPAIGN
Sheinbaum has expressed support for the president’s goal of keeping 54% of Mexico’s electricity generation under state control, a vision that prioritizes dirtier fuels over more renewable energy production.
Nevertheless, there are indications that Sheinbaum could take a more science-driven approach than her predecessor. Many cite her handling of the coronavirus pandemic as mayor of Mexico City for clues.
During her tenure, Sheinbaum emphasized mask-wearing, testing, and vaccination, in contrast to López Obrador, who often downplayed the virus's dangers. Additionally, Sheinbaum previously worked on plans to monitor Mexico City's air pollution. As mayor, she promoted public electro-mobility and cycling infrastructure and initiated a large solar power park on the rooftops of a major wholesale market.
Regarding water management, Sheinbaum has consistently called for a 30-year plan, an idea she has reiterated during her campaign.
She recently outlined a plan that prioritizes better measurement of water use in Mexico across sectors, particularly in agriculture, which accounts for the majority of the country's water use. However, details on how her government would achieve this were scarce.
In Iztapalapa, a borough of Mexico City with nearly 2 million residents, Juana Acosta and Jose Luis Perez recently waited 15 days, a week longer than usual, for a water delivery.
Although residents of this poor, densely populated area are familiar with water issues, they are experiencing worsening problems. Acosta noted longer wait times and stricter rationing due to shortages and increased demand.
"They didn’t used to leave us like this for a long time without water," Acosta said.