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Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell has stated that Russia has nearly fully restored its military capabilities. Speaking at a discussion on Indo-Pacific security, he noted the varying reports on Russia's progress in revitalizing its military following significant losses in Ukraine. Campbell, who co-founded the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), made these remarks during a CNAS event, highlighting Russia's potential threat not only to Ukraine but also to stability in Europe and NATO allies.
He highlighted Russia's receipt of industrial and commercial support from China, its largest trading partner, with $240 billion in commerce last year.
Assessments of Russia's military resurgence differ among governments and think tanks.
According to UK intelligence estimates, Russia lost around 315,000 troops in the early years of the war, depleting its aerial and support inventory. Despite these losses, Russian President Vladimir Putin has accelerated military production, focusing on shells, weapons, and equipment.
Campbell's comments present one of the more optimistic Western assessments of Russia's military recovery.
The UK military predicts that it will take Russia about a decade to replenish its ground troops with highly skilled forces, transitioning toward a "lower-quality, high-quantity mass army." Other estimates suggest that Russia could reach its military capacity to attack NATO in five to eight years.
Lithuania estimates this timeline to be between five to seven years.
The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) reported that Russia had strengthened its troops in Ukraine from a disorganized 360,000-strong force in 2023 to a better-trained 410,000 soldiers in 2024.
However, sustaining this production rate could be challenging, as much of it involves refurbishing older vehicles.
The Institute for the Study of War suggests that Russia may be able to maintain its current military capabilities for another two years, while Ukraine faces diminishing US support due to political disputes in Congress over aid packages.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned about depleted ammunition stocks hindering Ukraine's defense against Russia's slow advancement in the east.
House Speaker Mike Johnson has proposed using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine, though the level of congressional support for this plan remains uncertain.
Requests for comment from the US State Department and CNAS regarding these assessments were not immediately answered.