President Biden's recent threat to withhold certain weapons shipments to Israel has sparked a tense standoff with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, raising concerns in Israel about a potential strain in relations with its most crucial international ally.
Israeli officials and analysts view Biden's warning as a political signal that is unlikely to immediately impact Israel's military capabilities. However, they caution that the country's long-term ability to defend itself on multiple fronts could be jeopardized if the U.S. follows through on its threat to halt additional weapons deliveries should Israel launch a major offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where more than one million Palestinians are seeking shelter amidst the ongoing conflict.
This potential pause in weapons shipments has the potential to create one of the most significant crises in Israeli-American relations, drawing parallels to President Ronald Reagan's decision in 1981 to delay the delivery of F-16 jet fighters to Israel during its bombardment of Beirut.
Netanyahu responded to Biden's warning in a video message released on Thursday, asserting, "If we need to stand alone, we will stand alone. As I've already said—we will fight with our fingernails."
Following Biden's announcement, Israel's war and security cabinets convened to discuss the country's response to the U.S. decision to withhold munitions, according to an Israeli official.
Michael Herzog, Israel's ambassador to the U.S., criticized the Biden administration's stance, stating, "It is very unfortunate. I think it sends the wrong message to Hamas and to our enemies in the region. Nobody presented to me or to us a strategy of defeating Hamas without dealing with Rafah. I've not seen it."
The Israeli media extensively covered Biden's threat on Thursday, with many reporters and analysts expressing alarm over the potential pause and portraying it as a manifestation of U.S. frustration with Israel's handling of the conflict, a signal of deteriorating relations, and a warning to Netanyahu. Others, particularly supporters of Netanyahu, expressed anger towards the Biden administration for what they perceive as a lack of full support for Israel in achieving its objectives in the conflict.
Former Israeli deputy national security adviser Chuck Freilich commented, "Certainly the defense establishment is horrified by this. The importance here, at least for the short term, is the political statement. It won't have a military impact on operations in Gaza. It could if there's a major outbreak of fighting with Hezbollah."
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant indirectly addressed the U.S. in a speech on Thursday, stating, "I turn to Israel's enemies as well as to our best of friends and say, the state of Israel cannot be subdued, not the IDF, not the defense establishment, and not the state of Israel. We will stand strong, we will achieve our goals."
Meanwhile, negotiations continued towards a possible cease-fire deal that would secure the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas. Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns has been involved in the talks in an effort to break the deadlock. Negotiators left Cairo and are expected to return to the Egyptian capital by Tuesday.
Biden's warning came after he decided to delay the delivery of a shipment of 2,000- and 500-pound bombs, marking the first time he has chosen to withhold these types of weapons that Israel typically uses in Gaza.
The U.S. has cautioned Israel against a major ground operation in Rafah, with a spokesperson for the National Security Council stating, "If they do smash into Rafah, go in and invade in a major way, then he's going to have to make future decisions."
The question now is how Netanyahu will respond to Biden's ultimatum. Netanyahu has long argued that attacking Rafah and eliminating Hamas's remaining forces there is necessary to defeat the militant group.
Western officials and the U.N. have warned that a large-scale attack on Rafah would result in widespread civilian casualties and devastation among the Palestinian population sheltering in the area.
The Biden administration faces decisions regarding future weapons transfers to Israel. It is currently considering transferring more than $1 billion in new weapons, including tank ammunition, military vehicles, and mortar rounds. The State Department is also reviewing a separate deal for precision weapons for Israel.
The decision to delay one weapons delivery was described by a senior U.S. congressional aide as "a small warning shot to Israel, yes, but not at all a shift in policy."
Separately, Congress recently passed a bill to provide an additional $26 billion in assistance for Israel, including over $5 billion to replenish Israel's air defenses. Biden signed the bill into law in late April.
Despite the current tensions, Israeli and U.S. intelligence officials believe that completely destroying Hamas is likely unattainable, whether or not Israel conducts an operation in Rafah.