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Last year, as Mike Pompeo's memoir, "Never Give an Inch," circulated among China's leaders, a particular passage angered Xi Jinping. The former Secretary of State under President Donald Trump advocated for granting Taiwan full diplomatic recognition, sparking Xi's ire and hinting at broader concerns in Beijing about a potential return of Trump and his administration.
Trump's presidency had introduced turbulence into U.S.-China relations, and when he left office in 2020, Beijing seemed relieved. However, Chinese officials are now quietly preparing for the possibility of Trump's return, bracing for a potential reescalation of tensions. President Biden, while continuing many of Trump's tough policies on China, has also attempted to ease hostilities, a gesture appreciated by Xi.
Despite this, Chinese officials are wary of a second Trump term, fearing it could further strain relations. While some see potential benefits, such as accelerating what Xi perceives as America's decline and potentially improving relations with Europe, most believe the negatives outweigh the positives. The outcome would hinge on Trump's inner circle, with figures like Pompeo, who is open to rejoining a Trump administration, leading Beijing to take precautions, including placing sanctions on 28 former Trump officials.
China's Foreign Ministry has stated a desire for cooperation regardless of the U.S. president, but behind the scenes, preparations are underway. Ministries have appointed officials to monitor the U.S. election, particularly focusing on the Trump camp. Concerns include the possibility of another trade war and efforts to secure advanced technologies, as Chinese companies accelerate their expansion into regions like the Middle East to mitigate potential tech sanctions.
A Trump victory could disrupt the current geopolitical landscape, potentially affecting China's relationship with Russia, a key partner for Xi. There are fears Trump could try to turn Russia against China, undermining Beijing's strategic position. The Biden administration, meanwhile, is pressing China to reduce its support for Russia's defense industry.
Since the Biden-Xi summit, little substantive negotiation has occurred, with both sides taking a wait-and-see approach, particularly in light of the possibility of Trump's return. Despite the economic costs of Trump's tariffs, China is preparing for a potential re-escalation, focusing on tariff strategies and technology advancement.
Beijing's efforts to circumvent U.S. tech sanctions are expected to intensify, with Chinese officials engaging with Western experts to plan for various scenarios. Trump's approach to China remains a focal point of his campaign, contrasting his stance with Biden's more nuanced approach. If re-elected, Trump is expected to continue his tough stance on China, with a focus on trade and technology.
China, on its part, continues to expand its trade with developing economies, reducing its reliance on the U.S. Despite Trump's ambiguous stance on Taiwan, using it as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations seems unlikely to succeed, given Beijing's firm stance on Taiwan's status.