Secretary of State Antony Blinken has embarked on a visit to Israel to advocate for a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip. He finds Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a more robust position, less vulnerable to pressure than he was a few weeks ago.
In early April, Netanyahu faced public criticism from the Biden administration after Israel mistakenly killed seven aid workers. U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer publicly called for Netanyahu's replacement, and his poll numbers suffered as a result. However, following Iran's drone and missile attack on Israeli soil, Netanyahu's poll numbers have stabilized. This shift in dynamics has put pressure on the Biden administration, especially as protests against Israel's actions in Gaza spread across U.S. college campuses. Biden now needs Netanyahu's cooperation to achieve a ceasefire and alleviate domestic pressure over the conflict.
Israel has expressed readiness to send a delegation to Cairo, where Arab mediators have presented Hamas with a new plan to pause the fighting in exchange for the release of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. This proposal is seen as a final opportunity to delay an Israeli offensive on the southern Gaza city of Rafah, which Netanyahu believes is necessary to dismantle Hamas's remaining military capabilities and achieve the war's objectives.
Despite Netanyahu's improved poll numbers, he faces challenges at home. While some members of his small war cabinet advocate for a deal to free hostages, right-wing ministers in his broader coalition threaten to destabilize his government if he agrees to a deal that prevents an operation in Rafah. The White House perceives Netanyahu as the main obstacle to its broader goals in the Gaza war. Although Biden has cautioned Netanyahu about his coalition's hard-line stance, the U.S. is compelled to work with him, according to Yossi Shain, a political scientist at Tel Aviv University.
Netanyahu may also need U.S. support to defend against potential war crimes charges against top Israeli officials, which the International Criminal Court is considering. Israeli President Isaac Herzog raised this issue with Blinken during his visit.
The U.S. has stated that it cannot support an Israeli military operation in Rafah without a plan to manage the approximately one million Palestinian refugees there. However, the U.S. is also prepared to blame Hamas if a cease-fire deal collapses and Israel proceeds with an operation. Blinken reiterated this stance during his visit, emphasizing that any failure to achieve a cease-fire would be due to Hamas's actions.
Arab mediators continue to work towards a deal between Israel and Hamas, despite differing objectives from both sides. Hamas seeks a cease-fire that includes a permanent end to fighting, while Netanyahu insists on maintaining the option to militarily defeat Hamas. The latest cease-fire proposal involves two stages, including a period of calm with the release of hostages and a longer-term cease-fire agreement.
This tentative agreement marks a change in Netanyahu's position from a few weeks ago and could face opposition from far-right politicians in his coalition. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir have urged the government to move into Rafah immediately, highlighting the political challenges facing Netanyahu.
Benny Gantz, a member of the war cabinet, has indicated that his party could leave the government if an acceptable deal to free hostages is not approved. Despite these challenges, roughly half of Israelis support ending the war to secure the release of hostages, according to a recent poll.
Blinken's visit to Israel follows trips to Jordan and Saudi Arabia, where he sought support for a broader postwar plan. This plan aims to establish diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, create a roadmap for the creation of a Palestinian state, and lay the groundwork for an Arab force to stabilize Gaza. However, these goals are unlikely to be achieved while Netanyahu remains in power, given opposition from his far-right partners and members of his Likud faction.