Alondra Juárez, a 21-year-old college student, reflects on the recent years and perceives a transformation in Mexico. Thanks to government scholarships, she and her sister were able to attend a technical high school, a dream previously out of reach for their working-class family.
"For the first time in our history, the president has extended assistance to everyone, not just the elites," she remarked.
On the other hand, José Agustín Cervantes, a 27-year-old industrial engineer, sees a different picture. He believes that Mexico has changed, but not necessarily for the better. Cervantes thinks that the ruling Morena party has concentrated too much power and wasted resources on large, inefficient infrastructure projects. He cautions that if the party secures a significant majority, "whatever remains of our democracy could crumble."
The upcoming June 2 presidential election is shaping up to be a contest over Mexico's fundamental identity. With its 130 million citizens, Mexico's fate is closely tied to the United States through trade, migration, and shared culture. Is Mexico a young democracy regressing toward authoritarianism? Or has it never truly been democratic, now finding a government that prioritizes the common person?
A victory for Morena candidate Claudia Sheinbaum, 61, could solidify the party's hold, as it already controls the presidency, both chambers of Congress, and most of Mexico's governorships. Sheinbaum pledges to continue the policies of her mentor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the first left-leaning president in modern Mexican history and one of Latin America's most popular leaders.
Sheinbaum, a former Mexico City mayor, maintains a significant lead in polls over Xóchitl Gálvez, 61, a senator from the conservative National Action Party. Morena's dominance raises concerns of a return to the one-party system that prevailed in Mexico for much of the 20th century.
Denise Dresser, a critical political scientist, describes López Obrador's movement as a reaction to decades of wealth concentration, where the affluent benefited more than the less fortunate. However, she criticizes his portrayal of Morena as the sole party advocating for the majority of lower-income citizens. López Obrador has also come under fire for his attacks on institutions that challenge him, such as the Supreme Court and the independent electoral authority, and his recent call for voters to grant his party supermajorities in Congress to amend the constitution.
López Obrador established Morena in 2014, associating it with social welfare programs. Since taking office in 2018, he has provided scholarships, job training, pensions, and aid to the disabled. He has also raised the minimum wage, tackled labor abuses, and maintained economic stability. Polls indicate that just over half of Mexicans, or their family members, benefit from these programs, with a strong preference for Sheinbaum among this group.
Gálvez, on the other hand, emphasizes her business background and pledges to strengthen independent institutions. She aims to address Mexico's high levels of violence and stimulate economic growth, leveraging the nearshoring trend of manufacturers moving production from China to be closer to U.S. markets. Crime and employment are major concerns for Mexicans, but the central issue remains whether López Obrador's policies should continue.
The election's outcome remains uncertain. While Sheinbaum leads in polls, Gálvez insists that victory is not predetermined. A significant portion of voters believes that the opposition could still win, indicating a potential for a closer race than perceived.
Gálvez faces challenges due to the negative perceptions of her party, the National Action Party, and its coalition partner, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), both associated with past governance failures and corruption. The fear among opposition supporters is that Morena could not only win the presidency but also secure two-thirds supermajorities in Congress, enabling constitutional changes that could further consolidate the party's power.
The election presents a crucial decision for Mexico, with voters weighing between the continuation of López Obrador's vision and a shift towards a different direction.