Rez. Slotkin, a Democratic congresswoman from Holly, quickly mobilized her team for a run at a U.S. Senate seat. Despite Democrats not expecting a tough defense in the narrowly divided chamber, Slotkin, a powerhouse fundraiser, emerged as the Democratic Party establishment’s top choice, setting a torrid fundraising pace.
Michigan Republicans took longer to find their frontrunner. Amidst turmoil between pro-Trump Republicans and the old guard of the state GOP, they eventually convinced former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers to contend for the unexpected opening. Trump's endorsement gave Rogers a clear shot at winning his party's primary, avoiding the intra-party conflict that has plagued the Michigan GOP.
Both Slotkin and Rogers face opponents in the Aug. 6 primary, but their advantages make a second November showdown likely in a key swing state. With Trump and President Joe Biden poised to compete for the state's crucial 15 electoral votes, the unexpected fight for Michigan's open Senate seat could forecast the challenges the winner will face in office.
“This race is going to be close,” said former Michigan Republican Rep. Fred Upton. “This will be a battle between two heavyweights who really understand the issues.”
Hill Harper, known for his roles on “CSI: NY” and “The Good Doctor,” and businessman Nasser Beydoun will challenge Slotkin for the Democratic nomination. Slotkin maintains a substantial advantage in cash reserves and support from prominent Democrats.
Rogers’ primary advantage is Trump’s endorsement, which has faced pushback from some hardline Republicans due to Rogers' past criticisms of Trump. Despite this, Rogers aligns himself with Trump, aiming to win the general election.
Trump's endorsement has been influential in recent Michigan Republican nominations, but questions remain about its impact in the general election.
Tom Patton, a longtime Lansing area resident, voted for Nikki Haley in the state’s February primary, expressing disappointment in Rogers' support for Trump. Rogers’ fundraising has also lagged behind Slotkin’s.
“We’re going to run a better campaign. We don’t have to match dollar for dollar,” said Rogers. “All we’ve got to do is have enough money to make sure people understand the differences.”
The race is expected to mirror the presidential campaign, with Slotkin emphasizing reproductive rights and Rogers focusing on border security and inflation. Foreign policy may also play a significant role, with Rogers criticizing Slotkin and Biden on Middle East policy.
Wayne County, which includes Detroit and has the largest Democratic voting base in the state, has become a focal point for opposition to Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Slotkin, with her foreign policy experience, has faced criticism for not being harder on Israel.
Support from Arab Americans could be crucial to Slotkin’s chances, but her relationship with at least one community leader has remained strained. Slotkin earlier voted for a package sending more aid to Israel but emphasized the need for humanitarian aid in Gaza.
Despite Democratic turmoil, the party hasn’t lost a Senate race in Michigan since 1994. Democrats gained control of Michigan state government in 2022, partly due to a ballot initiative enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution, an issue Slotkin believes is still a winning issue in Michigan.
Rogers, seen as a moderate voice, has a legitimate chance to win in a state where Republicans haven’t been winning much lately. Democrats see Slotkin as a leading voice of the next generation of party leaders.
The matchup between Rogers and Slotkin is an unexpected twist in Michigan politics, with both sides gearing up for a tough battle.
“The Senate's on the line,” said Jason Roe, a Republican strategist in Michigan. “And Rogers and Slotkin could be a clash of the titans."