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Xi Jinping’s upcoming visit to Europe, his first in nearly five years, is set to test the continent's resolve in addressing Beijing's support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its trade policies that have significantly impacted European industries. European leaders have traditionally approached Beijing cautiously to avoid straining trade relations. However, French President Emmanuel Macron, who is scheduled to meet with Xi at the beginning of the six-day trip, has framed the Ukraine conflict and China's trade practices as existential threats to Europe.
China has been a key economic supporter of Russia during the war, offering critical assistance as Moscow works to rebuild its military capabilities. While Beijing has not directly supplied arms to Russia, U.S. officials allege it has provided satellite imagery and sold dual-use equipment to bolster Russia's armed forces. Additionally, China's significant exports to Europe, including electric vehicles and solar panels, have raised concerns about its efforts to offload surplus goods amid a sluggish domestic economy.
Addressing Beijing's actions will require unified action from European leaders, as China has a history of exploiting divisions among them. Macron aims to demonstrate a united front by inviting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to join him in Paris for the initial meetings with Xi. Von der Leyen has been vocal in criticizing China's global ambitions and has warned that Europe's relations with Beijing will be influenced by its stance on Ukraine.
In a recent move, the European Union imposed trade restrictions on three Chinese technology companies for the first time since the start of the war, citing concerns over the sale of militarily usable goods. The EU has also launched investigations into Chinese imports, including electric vehicles, citing concerns of unfair subsidies. However, divisions within Europe, particularly evident during German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's recent visit to China, could complicate efforts to present a unified front.
Despite these challenges, Macron is expected to take a firm stance with Xi, particularly on issues related to Russian support and global trade practices. Macron has warned of a paradigm shift in global trade rules, highlighting the need for Europe to adapt to new economic realities.
Xi's trip will also include stops in Serbia and Hungary, where he is likely to face differing responses to China's overtures. While Serbia marks a contentious historical event in Sino-U.S. relations, Hungary has embraced Chinese investment, particularly in the auto industry. Orban's government has positioned Hungary as a key logistical hub for Chinese investments, despite pressure to limit ties with Chinese companies.
Overall, Xi's visit to Europe is expected to highlight the complex dynamics between China and the EU, with both sides seeking to advance their interests while navigating geopolitical challenges.