The chief of Poland's counterintelligence service has expressed concerns regarding Russian President Vladimir Putin's alleged contemplation of a "mini-invasion" of a NATO country, with the aim of testing the resolve of Western leaders.
According to Jarosław Stróżyk, Putin is reportedly considering the invasion of parts of Estonia and Sweden, potentially targeting the city of Narva in Estonia or landing on one of Sweden's islands, as part of a broader strategy to exert control over the Baltic states. Both Estonia and Sweden are NATO members, and the alliance has reaffirmed its commitment to collective defense, promising to come to the aid of any member state under attack.
Stróżyk suggested that Putin's ambitions to revive a Russian Empire have been somewhat stalled by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which has strained Russia's resources. He noted that Western support for Ukraine has likely made Putin aware of the potential consequences of attacking a NATO member, anticipating a significant response from the West.
In response to escalating tensions, NATO leaders have expressed concerns about Russia's increasing aggression and have made preparations for further developments in the Ukrainian conflict.
Polish President Andrzej Duda has indicated his country's readiness to host allied nuclear weapons as a deterrent against Russian aggression, citing Russia's deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Putin's recent inauguration speech included a terse warning to the West, claiming “the destiny of Russia will be determined by ourselves only.” He pledged to utilize all available means to uphold the trust placed in him and emphasized national unity in overcoming challenges and achieving shared goals. Putin reiterated his characterization of the conflict in Ukraine as a "special military operation" and expressed gratitude to those involved in defending Russia's interests.
Overall, the remarks from Polish officials and Putin's statements underscore the heightened tensions between Russia and NATO, with concerns over potential military actions and the need for diplomatic efforts to mitigate the risk of escalation.