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"Good morning, Early Birds! Tonight, the NFL is set to release the schedule for the upcoming season, and we're eagerly anticipating it! For early tips and suggestions, you can reach us at earlytips@washpost.com. If you received this from a friend, don't forget to sign up here. Thank you for starting your day with us.
In today's news, allies of former President Trump have launched a charity to cover legal expenses. Additionally, Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer and a bipartisan group of senators have unveiled a comprehensive "road map" for regulating artificial intelligence (AI). But first, the victory of West Virginia Governor Jim Justice in the Senate GOP primary last night brings Republicans one step closer to gaining control of the Senate in the November elections.
Governor Justice's win almost guarantees that Republicans will flip the Senate seat currently held by retiring Democratic Senator Joe Manchin III, giving them a minimum of 50 seats after the elections. Democrats are facing a challenging defense, with eight seats that Republicans have a chance of winning. This includes an open Senate seat in Maryland, where former Governor Larry Hogan won the Republican primary. Hogan will now face Prince George's County Executive Angela D. Alsobrooks, who won the Democratic primary last night, in what is expected to be a closely contested race.
Despite being outspent by her opponent, Alsobrooks managed to defeat Representative David Trone, who loaned his campaign more than $62 million. Alsobrooks raised approximately $7.8 million, none of which was her own money. With 66 percent of the vote counted, Alsobrooks currently leads with 54 percent to Trone's 42 percent.
Republicans privately believe that Alsobrooks will be a formidable opponent. However, without Trone's significant financial resources, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and its allies will need to spend a considerable amount to defend the seat in what was already expected to be a costly election cycle, given the number of seats Democrats need to defend. Following the closure of polls, the DSCC immediately launched digital ads highlighting what could be perceived as politically problematic in the Senate race—that Hogan is a "lifelong Republican." While national Republicans have not yet committed to spending money in Maryland, it is highly likely that they will do so. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) stated last week that Maryland, along with West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana—the three reddest Senate battleground states—are his priorities for picking up seats.
With Hogan and Justice, Senate Republicans have "succeeded where they failed in '22 by recruiting politically popular candidates that effectively change the entire map," tweeted Republican strategist Josh Holmes, who is close to McConnell.
Many of the Republican candidates, including Hogan and Justice, were personally chosen and heavily recruited by McConnell and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines (R-Mont.).
Last cycle, untested candidates such as talk show host Mehmet Oz and former football player Herschel Walker cost Republicans the Senate. This time, Republicans believe they have made significant improvements by fielding wealthy, self-funding candidates in states like Pennsylvania, Montana, and Wisconsin who are not too extreme to win a general election. However, Democrats insist that Senate Republicans should not be measuring the drapes yet. They argue that Republicans' handpicked candidates in key races in Pennsylvania, Montana, Wisconsin, and Nevada have significant flaws—and that candidates backed by former President Donald Trump in Ohio and Arizona have major red flags.
"DSCC spokesman Tommy Garcia said in a statement, "Senate Republicans' roster of flawed recruits are being exposed for liabilities tied to their finances, lying about their biographies and a lifetime of toxic statements and policy positions."
In Ohio, questions have arisen about Republican candidate Bernie Moreno's background, including his family's rags-to-riches story as Colombian immigrants. The New York Times reported over the weekend that his parents were prominent, wealthy Colombians who came to the United States to help their children learn English and experience something new. The Associated Press wrote that Moreno, who has boasted of his success as the owner of a car dealership, is asking donors to retire debts incurred during his campaign. In Montana, first-time Republican candidate Tim Sheehy said he lied to a national park ranger about a gunshot wound in Glacier National Park in 2015, our colleague Liz Goodwin scooped a few weeks ago. He said he lied about the injury because he didn't want his former platoon mates in Afghanistan to be investigated. In Wisconsin, Republican Eric Hovde, a bank CEO, who grew up in the state but has lived in Washington, D.C., and California, is being labeled by Democrats as a carpetbagger for moving to Wisconsin to run for office. He has come under fire for questioning whether nursing home residents should vote.
In Pennsylvania, Republican Dave McCormick, has been criticized for not living in Pennsylvania and for investing in the Chinese defense industry while he ran a large hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates.
In Nevada, likely Republican nominee Sam Brown is facing attacks as a carpetbagger, having run for the Texas state legislature in 2014. Democrats are highlighting his comments from 2022 when he said Nevada should open Yucca Mountain to be a nuclear waste storage sight—a deeply unpopular view in Nevada.
Republicans dismiss the critiques, insisting that Democrats are grasping at straws on a Senate map that is hugely beneficial to Republicans.
"NRSC spokesman Mike Berg said, "Democrats are running a bunch of career politicians who have been totally corrupted by the D.C. swamp. On top of that, every one of these Democrats has voted lock, stock, and barrel for Joe Biden's extremely unpopular agenda of open borders, higher prices, and chaos around the world."
New polling from the New York Times, Siena College, and the Philadelphia Inquirer shows that Democratic Senate candidates in four states that are also presidential battlegrounds—Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Arizona—are leading their Republican challengers, indicating that Republican candidates have work to do. However, it's still early in the campaign.
"McConnell told Politico, "It's important to not get too excited because it's noteworthy that in the last cycle, not a single incumbent lost. So what's the message? Candidate quality."
In other election news, Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) easily won his primary, defeating Dan Frei 62 percent to 38 percent, with 95 percent of the vote counted. Bacon will face Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas in November in a swing district that President Biden carried in 2020.
n Maryland's 3rd District, State Sen. Sarah Elfreth defeated Harry Dunn, 35 percent to 25 percent, with 70 percent of the vote counted in the Democratic primary for the reliably blue seat that Democratic Rep. John Sarbanes is vacating.
Elfreth's victory was a win for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which staunchly supports Israel. A super PAC affiliated with AIPAC spent more than $4.2 million backing Elfreth's campaign. J Street, which supports Israel but is critical of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's conduct in the war in Gaza, endorsed Dunn—a former Capitol Police officer who campaigned on saving democracy and cited his experience defending the Capitol from rioters on Jan. 6, 2021—but it did not devote substantial resources to the race.
In the House, as President Biden delivers a speech at the Capitol today commemorating National Police Week