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A recent poll released on Monday indicates that almost 20% of voters attribute the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022 to President Joe Biden, despite former President Donald Trump's repeated claims of credit for appointing three conservative Supreme Court justices pivotal to the decision. The survey, conducted by The New York Times, Siena College, and The Philadelphia Inquirer, revealed that 17% of registered voters in six swing states believe Biden bears "a lot of responsibility" or "some responsibility" for the end of the constitutional right to abortion. Over 55% of respondents said Trump bears "some responsibility" or "a lot of responsibility" for the overturning of Roe.
Abortion has been a contentious issue for Trump, who had previously avoided addressing it directly. Since Roe was overturned and nearly 20 states implemented abortion bans or restrictions, abortion has emerged as a potent campaign issue for Democrats and a vulnerability for Republicans.
The 17% figure from the Times/Siena/Inquirer poll contrasts with Mini Timmaraju's observations while canvassing for abortion rights in these states for Reproductive Freedom for All. Timmaraju noted that the data and evidence, particularly from Trump's own statements, strongly suggest otherwise, indicating a need for greater awareness. She added, "That doesn’t tend to happen until later in the summer, early into the fall."
This finding starkly contrasts with other numbers from the poll. Thirty-seven percent of respondents believe abortion should be "always legal," and 49% believe Biden would handle abortion better than Trump. Another recent survey from Navigator, a progressive polling group, indicates that the public is becoming more aware of Trump’s anti-abortion stance. The more voters hear from Trump, the more likely they are to believe he would sign a national abortion ban if re-elected.
Christina Reynolds, senior vice president of communications at EMILY’s List, was not overly concerned about the 17%, suggesting it's a small number and other findings about abortion access align with what her organization has heard from pro-choice voters. She said, "The idea that some percentage blames Biden, it may be that that’s a percentage that’s just gonna blame Biden for anything."
The 17% of respondents were largely young voters who did not vote in the last election. Abortion is highly significant to young voters and young voters of color, which Timmaraju sees as an opportunity for the Biden campaign.
“We knew we were going to have to keep reminding voters who was responsible for the crisis and who can fix it,” she said. “Trump’s vote is locked in, Biden has a lot of opportunity. We’ve known all along, as advocacy groups that have endorsed Biden and [Vice President Kamala] Harris, we have a lot of work to do to make sure voters understand not only what the Biden-Harris record is, but what they’re going to do when we return them to the White House.”
Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster, agreed that many voters are not yet focused on the election. He stated, “These voters will decide this election and only the Biden campaign is doing the work to win them over.” He added that drawing broad conclusions about the presidential race from just one poll is premature.
The poll indicates that Trump leads in five of the six battleground states surveyed. The decline in support for Biden comes from young voters and voters of color who are dissatisfied with his handling of the economy and the Israel-Hamas conflict.
“You’ll see us out there in the press... talking about this and raising this issue,” Reynolds said, “and by election day voters won’t be confused about who’s to blame.”