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Sinwar, believed by Israel to be hiding in Hamas’s tunnels deep beneath Gaza, has thus far evaded Israel’s heavy bombardment. Arab negotiators and analysts suggest he believes he can withstand an assault on Rafah, even if Israel launches it. He, too, could face indictment by the ICC. His primary goal is to secure the release of hundreds, if not thousands, of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for hostages, aiming to definitively end the war and ensure Hamas’s survival. Sinwar is expected to reject any deal that lacks a credible path to ending the conflict.
Both Sinwar and Netanyahu, as hard-liners with limited flexibility in their war strategies, present a challenge for the Biden administration, which is working to free hostages and secure a cease-fire. Facing pressure from his party over the Gaza situation and discord on college campuses, Biden, in the midst of a tight re-election bid, is navigating critical negotiations for a possible cease-fire deal. The Israeli government's plan to enter Rafah, where over a million Palestinian civilians seek shelter, is crucial. Rafah's border crossing with Egypt provides a lifeline for humanitarian aid to many who are on the brink of starvation in Gaza. Netanyahu argues the operation is necessary to eliminate Hamas’s remaining military presence.
Dealing with both Netanyahu and Sinwar is daunting. Netanyahu seeks to prolong his tenure as a dominant leader despite facing nationwide protests and a corruption trial. Although recent polls suggest a majority of Israelis want him to resign, he likely believes his political survival prospects have improved. Sinwar, who learned Hebrew during his two-decade Israeli prison term, has led Hamas in Gaza during a period of military buildup and strengthened ties with Iran. Despite the battering of Hamas’s forces by the Israeli offensive, Sinwar and analysts believe he can endure for months or even years, buoyed by time, tunnels, and hostages, which provide an advantage in fighting an insurgency.
Netanyahu's assertion that Israel will proceed with its Rafah operation, with or without a cease-fire, reflects his stance against any deal that would allow Hamas to survive. The U.S. and other Western powers caution against a major military operation in Rafah without a credible civilian protection plan. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, during his visit to Israel, reiterated that Hamas must accept the current cease-fire deal. Hamas leader Osama Hamdan stated that negotiations would cease if Israel attacked Rafah, emphasizing that "the resistance does not negotiate under fire."
Pressure mounts on Netanyahu to secure the release of hostages, with families protesting in Tel Aviv demanding action. A majority of respondents in an Israeli poll support a deal that would free Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, criticizing Netanyahu for not doing enough to secure their release. While Israel's positive response to the recent cease-fire proposal was surprising, there are concerns that Netanyahu's negotiation approach might be a delaying tactic. Previous negotiators have experienced frustration when progress with Israeli technical teams in Qatar was not approved by the Israeli government.
A favorable response from Sinwar could create a challenging political moment for Netanyahu's coalition, possibly leading to its downfall, according to Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute.