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The conflict between Israel and Hamas escalated throughout the Gaza Strip on Monday, with mediators striving to restart talks to halt the violence and secure the release of hostages held in the region.
Israel’s military conducted ground operations in northern Gaza, specifically in Jabalia and Zeitoun, where militants were previously cleared, and engaged Hamas fighters in the southern city of Rafah. These actions followed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s remarks on Sunday, suggesting that Israel might face a prolonged insurgency even if it defeats Hamas in Rafah. Israel has advanced further into Rafah over the past week, characterizing it as a targeted effort to pressure Hamas into releasing hostages in exchange for a temporary cease-fire.
However, these tactics have only led to more intense fighting. Cease-fire negotiations, mediated by Egypt, Qatar, and the U.S., have also stalled.
Nevertheless, Arab mediators anticipate reconvening in Doha, Qatar, this week to narrow the gaps between the two sides, according to Egyptian officials.
The clashes on Monday coincided with Israel’s annual memorial day for fallen service members and preceded celebrations commemorating the country's establishment in 1948.
Netanyahu stated in a podcast recorded Sunday that Israel is exerting military pressure on Hamas in Rafah to secure the release of hostages and aims to enter the city to eliminate four of the group’s military battalions. "We’re very close to achieving the destruction of the remaining Hamas battalions,” he said. “That’s a precondition for victory.”
Israeli authorities report that around 130 hostages remain in Gaza out of the 240 abducted by Hamas and other Palestinian militants in the October 7 attack that killed 1,200 Israelis, mostly civilians. Palestinian officials claim that about 35,000 people, mostly civilians, have been killed in Gaza since the war began, without specifying how many were combatants. Since Israel initiated its targeted operation in Rafah last week, over 300,000 Palestinians have fled the city, exacerbating a humanitarian crisis that is increasing international pressure on Netanyahu to end the conflict.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Sunday evening to reiterate U.S. opposition to a major ground operation in Rafah, where more than a million people had sought refuge from fighting elsewhere in the strip until last week.
President Biden has also threatened to suspend additional weapons sales to Israel if it continues to disregard American concerns. It remains unclear when and if Israel’s operation in Rafah will be deemed a major ground operation.
The conflict is straining relations between Israel and Egypt, former enemies that signed a historic peace deal in 1979. Egypt announced on Sunday that it would support South Africa’s case accusing Israel of genocide at the International Court of Justice, citing concerns about the scale of Israel’s operations in Gaza. Due to the fighting in Rafah, the Egyptian crossing at the border city has mostly been closed. Military positions near the other major gateway into southern Gaza, Israel’s Kerem Shalom terminal, have faced rocket attacks by Hamas. The Health Ministry in Gaza reported on Monday that a worsening fuel shortage prevented them from powering generators in hospitals and ambulances.
Egypt has blocked humanitarian-aid trucks from entering Gaza through Kerem Shalom, according to Egyptian officials. Cairo was upset that Israel gave it short notice before seizing the Gaza side of the Rafah border crossing last week and has threatened to cease acting as a mediator in the negotiations and suspend its peace treaty with Israel, the officials said. Husam Badran, a senior Hamas official, described Israel’s operation in Rafah as a “rebellion against the world.”
Under mounting international pressure for Israel to show restraint in Rafah, the country and its military face a challenging dilemma: using excessive force and causing a high number of civilian casualties will lead to more condemnation and weaken Israel’s international standing, while using insufficient force may not dismantle Hamas’s military structure. According to Amir Avivi, a former deputy commander in the Israeli military who oversaw operations in Gaza, the only way to force a cease-fire deal is to threaten Hamas existentially. He believes that Hamas will not feel existentially threatened without a massive incursion into Rafah.
The ongoing conflict in Gaza once again highlights the absence of an Israeli postwar plan for the strip. The U.S. has warned that Hamas is likely to continue filling the power vacuum until Israel installs an alternative authority. The U.S. prefers a revitalized Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank, to assume control in Gaza. However, Netanyahu has stated that he will not accept this in Gaza.
In Sunday's podcast, the Israeli prime minister indicated that Israel is preparing for a protracted insurgency in Gaza. He stated that the military's first objective is to eliminate the Hamas battalions in Rafah and “mop up” any remaining fighters. Israel would then need to demilitarize the strip and prepare for a period during which Hamas would launch sporadic attacks. Netanyahu also expressed hope that Israel could collaborate with local Gazans to manage civilian affairs with support from other Arab countries, a proposal Palestinian leaders have rejected and some within Israel’s military have deemed impractical.