Experts have informed Newsweek that the anticipated delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine might be too late to significantly impact Russia's ongoing offensive in Kharkiv. According to the Associated Press, Russia has seized up to 47 square miles of Ukrainian territory in just two days, marking the most significant border incursion since the full-scale invasion began.
Ukrainian pilots, who have predominantly flown Soviet-era MiG aircraft during the more than two-year war, have recently been completing training on the U.S.-made jets in anticipation of receiving them from Western allies such as Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, and Belgium.
Initially, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen stated on Monday that Ukraine could expect to receive the first batch of F-16s from Denmark "within the next month." However, she revised her statement on Tuesday to indicate that the jets would be expected "in the next few months."
Nevertheless, experts interviewed by Newsweek on Tuesday suggested that relying on the F-16s to counter Russian forces from the air may have been a strategic mistake. They believe that Kyiv's military would have been better served by focusing on acquiring more familiar aircraft in a shorter timeframe.
William Reno, a professor and chair of the political science department at Northwestern University, expressed doubt that the delivery of the jets would occur at the "optimal time." He drew a parallel with Ukraine receiving Western tanks after its counteroffensive in fall 2022. "There's a tendency for weapon systems to arrive after the point at which they would have been most effective," said Reno. "There was an optimal time for tanks... They were put to use when they arrived in 2023, but by then began to encounter drone attacks that exploited vulnerabilities in their armor and thus limited their utility."
Reno further suggested that Ukraine should "consider making an offer to the Taliban for all that Soviet-era equipment we provided to Afghanistan's military," arguing that quickly acquiring older and cheaper aircraft might lead to "better battlefield results."
Guy McCardle, managing editor of the military news outlet SOFREP, echoed similar sentiments, telling Newsweek that Ukraine would have been better off enhancing its "ongoing operations and defensive measures" with MiG aircraft. He stated, "A MiG in the sky is worth two F-16s on their way, for Ukrainians," highlighting the immediate boost to air capabilities that MiGs could provide.
Newsweek attempted to reach out to the Ukrainian military for comment via email on Tuesday.
Ukrainian military officials have reported that thousands of people have been evacuated from the northeastern region of Kharkiv in recent days due to the ongoing Russian offensive, which has resulted in Moscow taking control of several border villages. Meanwhile, Moscow has pledged to treat the F-16s as a "nuclear-capable" threat upon their receipt by Ukraine, with the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs warning last week that the aircraft would be seen as a "purposeful provocation."