Vladimir Putin has received warnings about Russia's significant shortage of manpower, which would hinder his ability to achieve his next objective in Ukraine.
Moscow is anticipated to intensify its efforts to seize Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, following a two-pronged attack by the Russian Army that began on Friday. Putin's troops initiated attacks north of the city and further east in Vovchansk, exploiting delays in the delivery of newly approved aid from the US and Germany.
Despite recent "significant tactical gains" by Moscow, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes Putin is unlikely to advance towards Kharkiv due to insufficient troop numbers. Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate estimates that Moscow has approximately 35,000 troops stationed at the border of the Kharkiv region. However, the Kremlin reportedly believes it would require around 300,000 troops to encircle Kharkiv, a number far beyond its current deployment.
ISW suggests that Russian forces are initiating an offensive operation north of Kharkiv City to draw Ukrainian manpower and resources away from other critical sectors of the front in eastern Ukraine. The think tank also doubts Russia's ability to seize Kharkiv City, noting the logistical challenges of conducting such an operation across open terrain.
President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine's military had anticipated the latest attack and had prepared its response accordingly. While Russia may not be able to capture Kharkiv without a significant buildup of troops and armor, its actions could compel Ukraine to deploy more troops to the region, potentially leaving other areas vulnerable.
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