The Ukrainian military's updates over the last 72 hours paint a bleak picture: "Ongoing defensive fighting," "Significantly worsened," and Russian "tactical success."
Kyiv's leaders, who seldom express pessimism, now reflect the dire situation. Russia's advance spans multiple fronts, not just one area. With $61 billion in U.S. military aid set to strengthen Ukraine's defenses in about a month, President Vladimir Putin is escalating his efforts, anticipating tougher battles this summer.
The most concerning development is near Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city. Russian forces have breached the border at several points, claiming control of nine villages and advancing 3 to 4.5 miles into Ukrainian territory.
This rapid progress is their fastest since the war's early days. Russian battalions are targeting the border town of Vovchansk, which has endured severe airstrikes, and the town of Lyptsi is also at risk. From here, Russian forces could bombard Kharkiv with artillery.
This situation is dire for Kyiv, highlighting the failure to adequately fortify the region after liberating it 18 months ago and risking tying up Ukraine’s stretched military resources with relentless pressure on Kharkiv.
Further south, near Bakhmut, the town of Chasiv Yar is under intense pressure. This strategic location overlooks key Ukrainian military towns, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, jeopardizing Kyiv’s supply lines. In the south, Russian gains near Netailove and Krasnohorivka threaten another crucial hub, Pokrovsk. Any further Ukrainian retreats here could endanger their control over the Donetsk region.
The situation is similarly bleak elsewhere on the front lines. Deep State Map, a Ukrainian military analysis group, reported increased threats to the southern village of Verbove, a minimal gain from Kyiv’s stalled summer counteroffensive last year. Across the board, the news is grim.
Ukrainian leaders have openly acknowledged the severity of the situation, indicating desperation by shuffling commanders in the midst of battle. Criticism is growing over the failure to prepare the northern border regions over the past year. Many areas lack sufficient fortifications, possibly due to overconfidence in last summer’s counteroffensive.
Globally, attention is waning. While European ministers and senior U.S. officials make strong statements and visits, public support for aiding Ukraine is fading. The conflict is being overshadowed by other global crises, particularly in the Middle East, just when its outcome is critical for European security.
Meanwhile, Putin has reshuffled his cabinet, moving Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to a procedural role as National Security Council head and appointing accountant Andrey Belousov in his place. This move seems to integrate the war more fully into Russia's economy, signaling a long-term commitment.
In contrast, the West faces dysfunction. The delay in U.S. aid has severely impacted Ukraine’s military efforts. Europe talks about filling the gap but cannot match the scale of U.S. support. With U.S. elections approaching, American political uncertainty adds to Kyiv’s challenges.
The situation on the front lines is worsening daily. As the ground dries, the season for renewed attacks begins. Russia has gained unprecedented momentum since March 2022, forcing Ukraine to confront the harsh reality of its position. While much of the world grows weary of this war, Putin remains relentless.