The recent report from the Singapore-based think tank ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute highlights a significant change in Southeast Asia's stance regarding alignment with China or the United States.
This year, for the first time in the five-year history of the survey, China has overtaken the U.S. as the preferred partner for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
However, experts caution against viewing this shift as a clear preference for China, as the region remains divided in its views amidst the ongoing great-power rivalry.
Among the 10 ASEAN member states, seven countries—Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Thailand—showed a higher inclination towards aligning with China compared to the previous year.
Laos and Malaysia saw the most significant increases, with jumps of 29.5% and 20.3%, respectively. On the other hand, the preference for China declined in the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam.
To calculate an overall ASEAN score, each member state's results were given a 10% weighting, regardless of population differences.
This approach reflects ASEAN's consensus-based decision-making process, where each member state has an equal say.
Despite the apparent shift towards China, experts like Sharon Seah from ISEAS emphasize that the report underscores the complexity of ASEAN's attitude towards the U.S.-China rivalry, given the bloc's diverse opinions and approaches.
Mark S. Cogan, an associate professor at Japan's Kansai Gaidai University, notes that ASEAN's division is evident in its varied behavior towards U.S.-China relations.
Many ASEAN states maintain close economic ties with China while balancing against its influence and territorial ambitions through defense partnerships with the U.S. For instance, Indonesia's President-elect Prabowo Subianto recently visited both China and Japan, highlighting the country's dual approach.
As China escalates its activities in the South China Sea, ASEAN states have sought defense support from the U.S. Yet, China remains a significant trading partner for the Philippines.
Thailand's Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has also courted both China and the U.S. for investments, reflecting ASEAN's strategy of balancing between the two powers.
Despite these complexities, the report indicates that ASEAN is looking to enhance its internal resilience in response to the volatile geopolitical environment.
About half of the respondents believe ASEAN should enhance its unity and resilience to withstand pressure from both major powers.
The report also highlights ASEAN's nuanced responses to various political issues, including Myanmar's junta and potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
In conclusion, the report underscores ASEAN's intricate and multifaceted approach to the U.S.-China rivalry, indicating that there is no single ASEAN response but rather a variety of responses depending on the country and the issue at hand.