Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently faced a significant political setback, described by analysts as one of his most challenging in over two decades.
His long-standing Justice and Development Party (AKP) suffered a significant defeat in local elections across Turkey on Sunday, marking a surprising turn of events following Erdogan's solidification of power in the previous year's general elections.
The opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) secured victories nationwide, notably in Turkey’s five largest cities, including Istanbul, where Erdogan had actively campaigned for his preferred AKP candidate.
Erdogan's political career began with a successful tenure as Istanbul's mayor three decades ago.
Born to humble migrants, Erdogan initially garnered support for his governance style, overseeing construction projects and major public works in Istanbul.
His appeal to the city’s working class, including religious conservatives from rural areas, formed the core of his religiously tinged populist nationalism, which challenged the secular elite and now underpins the illiberal majoritarian regime that has kept him in power.
In contrast, Ekrem Imamoglu, the incumbent CHP mayor of Istanbul, emerged as a key figure in Turkish politics, successfully fending off a strong AKP campaign to unseat him.
He framed his reelection as a global victory against electoral autocracies, signaling a potential challenge to Erdogan's dominance with his declaration that "the era of one person’s tutelage is over."
Voter discontent with the economy played a significant role in the AKP’s defeat, with high inflation and a devalued currency impacting households.
This economic frustration, combined with broader dissatisfaction with the AKP's rule, led some right-wing AKP voters to support other parties.
Additionally, the CHP's success was bolstered by alliances with ethnic Kurdish voters, particularly in areas where defeating the AKP was the primary goal.
The CHP, historically associated with Turkey’s secular past, has undergone a transformation under new leadership, appealing to a broader base beyond urban secularists.
This shift, along with charismatic leadership and a focus on governance, has contributed to the party's resurgence.
While Turkey’s electoral landscape remains challenging, the recent election demonstrates the potential for rapid change even within an illiberal context.
Erdogan, once considered invincible, now faces uncertainty as he looks towards the next election.
His failure to secure victories for his chosen candidates suggests a potential successor problem, while the opposition, led by figures like Imamoglu, offers a new model for liberal democrats elsewhere.