Top American officials issued grave warnings on Sunday against a potential Israeli invasion of Rafah, cautioning that such a move could result in extensive civilian casualties, trigger a resurgence of Hamas, and create a power vacuum that the militant group might exploit. The admonitions from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan followed President Joe Biden's recent ultimatum on CNN, where he stated that an Israeli incursion into Rafah would lead to a suspension of certain arms transfers.
Both Blinken and Sullivan emphasized that Biden's decision was driven by a desire to prevent American weapons from being used in what is anticipated to be a bloody and ill-conceived operation. They also sought to refute assertions from Republicans and pro-Israel Democrats that the US was abandoning Israel. Blinken addressed criticism regarding the US State Department's inability to fully assess whether Israel was adhering to international law in its conflict with Hamas, highlighting the challenges of making such determinations during an ongoing conflict.
Blinken noted that the US believed Israel's military actions in Gaza had resulted in more civilian deaths than Hamas attacks, stressing the need for Israel to do more to minimize civilian casualties. Despite Israel's efforts to minimize harm to civilians, Blinken suggested that these measures had not been consistently and effectively implemented given the impact of the conflict on Gaza's civilian population.
The Gaza Ministry of Health reported that the number of people killed in Israeli military operations in the enclave had exceeded 35,000. Despite longstanding American warnings against a ground invasion of Rafah, Israel appeared poised to continue its advance and had issued evacuation orders for some of the estimated 1.4 million civilians in the area.
Blinken warned of the potential for Israel to face an entrenched insurgency or a chaotic vacuum if it proceeded with a full-scale invasion of Rafah. Sullivan echoed these concerns, emphasizing the likelihood of significant civilian casualties and the improbable prospect of eradicating Hamas through military means.
Sullivan confirmed that Biden's decision regarding arms transfers was specific to the situation in Rafah and did not indicate a broader shift in US policy towards Israel. He reiterated the US administration's longstanding concerns about the potential consequences of a major military operation in Rafah during a phone call with Israeli counterpart Tzachi Hanegbi, who assured him that Israel was taking these concerns into account.
Blinken highlighted the need for Israel to develop post-war plans for Gaza, noting that while the US had been working with Arab countries and others on such plans, similar efforts from Israel had not materialized. He emphasized that the US and Israel shared the objective of preventing Hamas from governing Gaza in the future.
Regarding the use of US weapons by Israeli forces in Gaza, Blinken stated that while a State Department report had found some inconsistencies with international humanitarian law, making a definitive determination amid the ongoing conflict was challenging. He underscored the importance of treating Israel like any other country when assessing such issues.
Despite tensions between Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Blinken downplayed any rift, emphasizing that both countries shared common interests while acknowledging differences in approach. He characterized the relationship as one where both sides speak candidly and prioritize their respective interests.