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In recent events, the Iranian attack on Israel has piqued the interest of one world leader in particular: North Korea's Kim Jong Un.
This attack, along with the successful defense by Israel and its allies, notably the U.S., provides Kim with a real-world case study on engaging Western defenses. It enhances North Korea's understanding of how its own arsenal might perform in hypothetical attacks on Japan or South Korea, both of which are increasingly integrated with U.S. defense systems. The growing rapport between North Korea and Iran raises concerns in the West about potential military cooperation between the two nations.
Even prior to the Iranian assault on Israel, North Korea had been observing the performance of its munitions in Ukraine, where Russian forces are utilizing North Korean arms against weapons supplied by the U.S. and its European allies to Kyiv.
While there are distinctions between these situations—for example, Iran's attack on Israel was preceded by substantial forewarning, unlike a potential North Korean strike on South Korea or Japan, which could occur with little notice—the incident provides valuable insights. North Korea, with its nuclear capabilities, poses one of the world's most volatile military threats. Pyongyang has conducted weapons tests with impunity in recent years, including a simulated nuclear counterattack in April overseen by Kim.
The lessons derived by Tehran from its strike on Israel, as well as Israel's subsequent retaliation against Iran, are likely to be informative not just to Kim but also to China's Xi Jinping and Russia's Vladimir Putin. These countries, which have grown closer since the Ukraine conflict, form an "authoritarian value chain," potentially enabling them to exchange knowledge on weapons production or technology.
While there is scant recent evidence of close collaboration between Pyongyang and Tehran, the potential for the two to cooperate on military technology exists. North Korea has a history of arms deals with Iran dating back to the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. Iran's Shahab-3 ballistic missiles appear to have been developed based on North Korea's Rodong designs, according to a 2019 assessment by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency.
South Korea's intelligence agency has indicated it will investigate similarities between Iran's drones and missiles used against Israel, suggesting the potential for technological exchanges between North Korea and Iran.