Maryland's Senate Showdown: Alsobrooks vs. Hogan - Who Will Win?

Maryland's Senate Showdown: Alsobrooks vs. Hogan - Who Will Win?

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Angela Alsobrooks emerged victorious in a hard-fought Democratic Senate primary in Maryland, defeating Rep. David Trone, who invested a record amount of his personal funds in the campaign.

According to The Associated Press, Alsobrooks, currently serving as Prince George’s County Executive, was declared the winner late Tuesday, with 53% of the vote compared to Trone's 43%, with over half of the votes counted. Alsobrooks will now face popular former two-term Republican Governor Larry Hogan in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Senator Ben Cardin. This contest is expected to be one of the fall’s marquee face-offs, crucial in determining control of the Senate. Despite Democrats holding a slim 51-49 majority, they are anticipated to lose ground in states like West Virginia, while also defending vulnerable seats in Ohio and Montana.

If successful in November, Alsobrooks would become only the third Black woman ever elected to the Senate. Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, a Democrat from Delaware, is also favored to win, adding to the chamber’s Black female representation.

“We are going to defeat Larry Hogan, keep Maryland blue, and keep our Senate under Democratic control—spread the word,” Alsobrooks announced on social media Tuesday night. At 53 years old, Alsobrooks previously served as the state’s attorney in Prince George’s County and as a prosecutor before assuming the county’s top role. Overcoming Trone’s significant advertising advantage, she secured endorsements from much of Maryland's Democratic political establishment, including Gov. Wes Moore, Sen. Chris Van Hollen, and Reps. Jamie Raskin and Steny Hoyer.

Hogan, who had been heavily courted by Republicans, entered the Senate race in February and initially held a considerable lead in hypothetical matchups against either Democrat. However, recent polls have shown a tightening race. As a centrist GOP governor of a blue state, Hogan focused largely on state and local issues during his terms, while also maintaining a critical stance towards former President Donald Trump.

“I will stand up to the current president, the former president, to the Democratic Party, or the Republican Party,” Hogan asserted in remarks after winning the GOP primary Tuesday night. “I will continue to be the same strong independent leader for Maryland that I always have been.”

Democrats anticipate that the Senate race, with its focus on national issues like abortion, will pose a tougher challenge for Hogan, who has indicated he would caucus with Republicans if elected. Although Hogan opposes a federal ban on abortion, he has not clarified his stance on supporting federal legislation ensuring abortion access. In 2022, he vetoed Maryland state legislation aimed at expanding abortion access by removing a restriction that only physicians could perform the procedure.

Hogan's popularity as governor may not necessarily translate to success in the Senate race, where national party politics play a larger role. Len Foxwell, a Democratic political consultant in Maryland, noted that voters in blue states like Maryland and Massachusetts tend to be more open to electing a liked and respected Republican governor, but this sentiment doesn't always extend to Senate races, which are more nationalized in terms of issues.

Maryland voters will also weigh in on whether to enshrine the right to an abortion in the state constitution this fall.

Alsobrooks's victory represents a significant comeback, as she had been trailing in polls for months against Trone's unprecedented spending. Trone, the 68-year-old founder of Total Wine & More, invested nearly $62 million in the race, making him the biggest self-funder in a Senate primary. Trone's campaign faced challenges, including a misstep during a congressional hearing on tax policy when he used an antiquated racial slur. He apologized for the incident. Additionally, an attack ad from his campaign backfired, drawing criticism from Black female elected officials, activists, and church leaders.

Black voters make up about 46% of registered Democrats and 24% of all registered voters in Maryland, according to L2, a nonpartisan vendor of voter data.

In other primary contests on Tuesday, West Virginia Governor Jim Justice easily won the GOP Senate primary to succeed retiring Democratic Senator Joe Manchin, defeating Rep. Alex Mooney. Swing-district GOP Rep. Don Bacon also won his Nebraska primary comfortably.

The WNBA season kicked off with the league's newest star, who had a historic NCAA season with the Iowa Hawkeyes, taking center stage. More than 13,000 fans were in attendance as she made her home preseason debut last week in an 83-80 victory for the Indiana Fever over the Atlanta Dream. Hype for her debut season has been at a fever pitch - for home and away fans. The Sun's opener against the Fever was sold out with 8,910 tickets at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut.

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