In a recent poll conducted by The New York Times, Siena College, and The Philadelphia Inquirer, former President Donald Trump is shown to be leading President Joe Biden in several key swing states crucial for the 2024 presidential election. The survey, released on Monday, indicates that Biden is trailing Trump among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup. Trump leads by seven points in Arizona, 10 points in Georgia, seven points in Michigan, 12 points in Nevada, and three points in Pennsylvania. However, Biden maintains a slim lead over Trump by two points in Wisconsin.
The economy remains a significant concern for voters in these pivotal states as they look ahead to the 2024 contest. Over 50% of survey respondents in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania view current economic conditions as poor. Additionally, there is growing criticism among young voters, particularly regarding Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. According to the polls, only 28% of respondents aged 18 to 29 trust Biden to manage the broader Israel-Palestinian conflict, while 52% trust Trump. Twenty percent of respondents in that age group either did not respond or were unsure.
The surveys, conducted among more than 4,000 registered voters between April 28 and May 9, have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. Each state poll has a margin of error ranging from plus or minus 3.6 percentage points to plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
Other polls have also shown Trump leading Biden in key swing states. For instance, an Emerson College/The Hill poll conducted between April 25 and April 29 found Trump ahead of Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.