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According to Western intelligence sources, Russia is reportedly planning to exploit what it perceives as a strategic "window of opportunity" to escalate its air and ground offensives in Ukraine. This strategy is driven by the anticipated delay in the arrival of new weapons and ammunition from the recently approved US military aid package, which is expected to take some time to reach Ukraine in significant quantities. Three officials with direct knowledge of the latest assessments shared this information with CNN.
In a significant development overnight on Wednesday, Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine. Ukrainian authorities reported that Russia fired over 50 missiles and deployed 20 drones, targeting energy infrastructure across the country. Ukraine’s largest power company stated that this was the fifth attack by Russia on its facilities in the past six weeks.
"They are trying to cause as much suffering to the Ukrainian people as possible now to take advantage of and destroy Ukrainian morale," said Ukrainian parliament member Oleksiy Goncharenko in an interview with CNN on Wednesday.
The approval delay for the funding was resolved last month when Republican Speaker Mike Johnson brought a major security package for a vote, pairing Ukraine funding with aid for Israel and Taiwan, despite opposition from some within his party. However, the months of inaction have resulted in tangible costs for Ukrainian forces in both territory and casualties, according to these officials. Russian forces are expected to attempt further advances and consolidate earlier gains before this perceived window of opportunity closes.
Both Western and Ukrainian officials see the near-term threat of increased attacks as linked to Russian plans for a larger offensive in early summer. US and Ukrainian officials remain concerned about a potential further partial mobilization by Russia to deploy more manpower to the frontlines, while Ukraine grapples with its own manpower shortages.
Looking ahead, even with the arrival of new assistance, one US military official cautioned, “It is hold the line at best.”
“With the level of supply, it will be very hard for us to regain any territory,” Goncharenko concurred. “So it’s more about stabilizing. It’s more about winning time, but not winning the war. So we need more support, and we hope other countries will follow the US example.”
CNN recently reported that Russian forces have exploited an “artillery drought” affecting Ukrainian forces to advance on the eastern front near Avdiivka, marking the largest Russian advance since the early stages of the conflict. Moscow's progress has raised concerns among senior Ukrainian military officials about a potential threat to Kyiv’s supply lines and hubs in the east, which are now within range of superior Russian firepower.
In recent weeks, Russia has directed substantial resources at weak Ukrainian defenses along the eastern front, aiming for three key objectives: the crucial military center of Pokrovsk, west of Avdiivka; the strategic heights of Chasiv Yar, near Bakhmut; and Kurakhove in the southeast.