The ongoing conflict in Gaza is putting significant strain on the relationship between President Biden and his political base, particularly regarding Israel's actions. Over the past two decades, there has been a noticeable shift among rank-and-file Democrats, moving away from staunch support for Israel towards more sympathy for the Palestinians. This change has coincided with the predominantly right-leaning governments in Israel, primarily under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership. In contrast, support for Israel has grown among Republican voters during this period.
This shift in sympathies is reflected in polling data, with a much larger proportion of Republican voters now expressing more sympathy for Israel than for the Palestinians compared to Democrats. This growing partisan divide in the United States suggests that Netanyahu's legacy will include a significant role in breaking the bipartisan consensus that historically supported Israel in US politics.
Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, notes that the fundamental drivers of the US-Israeli relationship are currently under more strain than ever before. This pressure could result in Biden being the last Democratic president for the foreseeable future to align so closely with Israel.
Despite the majority of Democratic officeholders maintaining support for Israel, Biden's presidency may mark a turning point.
The generational divide within the Democratic Party is also evident in attitudes toward Israel. While older Democrats tend to maintain support, younger Democrats are increasingly critical of Israel's actions.
This trend is reflected in recent polls, which show a growing number of Democrats favoring the Palestinians over Israel.
The role of lobbying groups like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is also significant.
AIPAC's influence has slowed the shift among Democratic officials toward a more critical stance on Israel. However, generational changes within the party, as well as the ongoing conflict in Gaza, are pushing Democratic leaders to reassess their relationship with Israel.
Overall, the widening partisan gap over Israel in the US is likely to continue, particularly as younger Democrats become a more influential part of the party. While Biden's presidency may represent a turning point, the long-term implications for US-Israeli relations remain uncertain.