WASHINGTON—The Biden administration's extensive public and private efforts to prevent Israel's attack on Rafah have posed its most significant challenge yet with its Middle East ally.
Following President Biden's warning to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against a full-scale assault on Rafah, Israel's military carried out targeted airstrikes in the eastern part of the city. This attack underscored the significant gap between Biden and Netanyahu regarding a strategy to secure the release of hostages held by Hamas and ultimately end the conflict.
To date, the White House has not achieved a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel nor convinced Netanyahu to postpone the Rafah offensive. Hamas announced on Monday that it had agreed to a temporary cease-fire. The U.S. stated it was evaluating Hamas's response, while Israel complained that the group had introduced new conditions.
Since his visit to Israel during the conflict following Hamas's surprise attack on October 7, President Biden has emerged as one of the country's staunchest supporters. The U.S. has provided billions of dollars in weaponry to Israel, consistently defending Israel's right to self-defense—a strategy aimed at influencing Israeli leaders' decisions behind the scenes.
Over the past few weeks, the Biden administration has escalated pressure on Israel and Hamas to secure a six-week cease-fire, which officials hoped could be extended through further diplomatic efforts. According to U.S. officials, a pause is crucial to securing the release of hostages, including American citizens, and creating an opportunity for diplomatic efforts to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated on Wednesday that if a cease-fire is achieved and hostages are released, the U.S. will seek ways to build on that progress for a sustainable solution over time. In contrast, Netanyahu has emphasized the need to confront the four Hamas battalions and the group's leadership in Rafah, even if that operation must wait until a cease-fire is negotiated.
"The idea that we will stop the war before achieving all of its goals is out of the question," Netanyahu said last week. He insisted that Israel would enter Rafah to dismantle the Hamas battalions there, "with or without a deal." Despite the elusive nature of a cease-fire, the U.S. has stated that it would not support a major Israeli ground incursion in Rafah unless Israel presents an effective plan to ensure the safety and humanitarian assistance of the over one million Palestinians sheltering in the city—a goal some U.S. officials deem unfeasible.
"The U.S. will not support the current Israeli offensive in Rafah," said State Department spokesman Matthew Miller on Monday. "Such an offensive would significantly increase the suffering of the Palestinian people."
On Monday, Israel dropped leaflets urging 100,000 people to evacuate eastern Rafah for the coastal area of al-Mawasi and warned of "extreme force against the terrorist organizations in the areas where you live." This move has led to speculation that Israel's strategy might involve avoiding a major ground assault, at least for now, by conducting a series of more limited operations while gaining control over the Gaza-Egypt border.
Simultaneously, Israel's war cabinet announced that it would send a delegation back to the cease-fire talks while continuing the Rafah operation to pressure Hamas to release hostages and advance "the other goals of the war," according to Netanyahu's office.
"It looks like they plan to do it incrementally. It is not going to be what the Biden administration has railed against," said Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. peace negotiator now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Netanyahu's calculation is much more focused on maintaining his coalition than on keeping Joe Biden happy."
Netanyahu's popularity has begun to recover following Israel's security failure on October 7, when Hamas attacked southern Israel, killing 1,200 people. However, his survival as prime minister hinges on maintaining his narrow parliamentary majority and not alienating far-right members of his government who oppose ending the war until Hamas's last stronghold in Rafah is taken.
During Monday's 30-minute call, President Biden discussed cease-fire and hostage negotiations with Netanyahu. The White House stated that Israel had agreed to reopen the Kerem Shalom border crossing, which was closed after a Hamas rocket attack killed four Israeli soldiers in the area on Sunday.
A concern for the Biden administration is that even a limited operation might prompt hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to flee, overwhelming the available shelter, food, and medical care. With the two sides at odds over the potential Rafah operation, the Biden administration has delayed the sale of thousands of precision weapons to Israel, marking at least the second time in recent months that the U.S. has postponed an arms deal with its closest Middle East ally amid the Gaza conflict.
The decision affects up to 6,500 Joint Direct Attack Munitions—kits that allow unguided bombs to be directed to a target using satellite guidance.
While the White House did not confirm or deny the move, its timing suggests it is part of a strategy to pressure Israel not to hastily proceed with an assault on Rafah.