The United Nations has issued a stark warning, stating that the world stands on the brink of a catastrophic climate crisis. This comes in response to a Guardian survey revealing that hundreds of leading climate experts anticipate global temperatures will exceed the international target of 1.5°C.
Prominent figures in the climate community have reacted to this news, emphasizing the urgent need for radical action to halt the burning of fossil fuels and prevent immense loss of life and livelihoods. While many experts fear that the 1.5°C target is in jeopardy, some believe that with a dramatic acceleration of climate action, it is still possible to avoid surpassing this limit.
The survey, which gathered insights from nearly 400 senior authors of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports, indicates that almost 80% expect a temperature increase of at least 2.5°C above preindustrial levels, a level of heating considered catastrophic. Only 6% believe the increase will stay within the 1.5°C limit. Many scientists expressed personal anguish over the lack of decisive climate action.
"The goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is hanging by a thread," remarked the spokesperson for UN Secretary-General António Guterres. "The battle to keep 1.5°C alive will be won or lost in the 2020s – under the watch of political and industry leaders today. They need to realize we are on the verge of the abyss. The science is clear, and so are the world’s scientists: the stakes for all humanity could not be higher."
Alok Sharma, president of the Cop26 climate summit in 2021, urged governments to stop delaying and to act with greater urgency in fulfilling their climate commitments. He emphasized the need for world leaders to deliver on their promise to transition away from fossil fuels, a pledge made at Cop28 in December.
Christiana Figueres, the UN climate chief who led the 2015 Paris climate deal where the 1.5°C goal was adopted, emphasized the need for decisive action. "These climate scientists are doing their job. They are telling us where we are, but now it’s up to the rest of us to decide what this moment requires of us and [to] turn the seemingly impossible into the new normal."
Despite the grim outlook, Figueres sees the world on the cusp of positive societal shifts away from fossil fuels. "It doesn’t mean a utopian future – we know too much climate change is already baked into the system – but enormous positive change is coming. A world in which we pass 1.5°C is not set in stone."
The 1.5°C target was originally proposed by the Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis). Fatumanava Pa’olelei Luteru, the chair of Aosis, highlighted the existential threat faced by low-lying island nations. "Our islands are quite literally sinking as the temperatures rise. The lack of ambition on climate change from bigger countries is consigning our states to a reality of devastating loss."
Youth climate activists echoed these concerns. "Crashing through the guardrail of 1.5°C would be a death sentence for millions of people in the global south," said Vanessa Nakate, at Rise Up Movement Uganda. "Unless we see immediate action, no one will be safe."
Disha Ravi, at Fridays For Future India, pointed to the deadly heatwaves and other extreme weather events in India as evidence of the urgent need for action. "The complacency of leaders is killing people. Temperature rises beyond 2.5°C are not inevitable, but averting it requires genuine commitment and action from those in power."
Experts from various fields expressed frustration and called for urgent change in response to the Guardian's findings. Rachel Kyte, a climate policy professor at the University of Oxford, emphasized the need for innovative democratic solutions to align with the scientific consensus.
Nicholas Stern, a leading climate economist, noted that the survey reflects scientists' lack of confidence in world leaders to address the crisis. He stressed that while there is still time for leaders to act, the scale and pace of change must be substantial and swift.
Helen Clarkson, CEO of the Climate Group, underscored the disparity between climate targets and actual actions being taken.
Respondents to the Guardian survey identified political will as the most significant barrier to climate action. Harjeet Singh, at the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, criticized governments, especially in wealthy nations, for prioritizing fossil fuel interests over people's well-being.
Politicians around the world echoed the urgent call for action. UK Green party MP Caroline Lucas emphasized the need for politicians to treat the climate emergency with the seriousness it deserves. UK Shadow Climate Change Minister Ed Miliband stressed that every fraction of a degree matters for future generations.
In the US, Representative Chrissy Houlahan highlighted the need for swift bipartisan action in Congress. Bas Eickhout, a Green member of the European Parliament, emphasized the necessity of persevering in the face of despair.
The survey findings serve as a stark reminder of the critical need for immediate and decisive action to address the climate crisis.