Intense rainfall and subsequent flooding have led to numerous fatalities globally in the past fortnight, with local authorities warning of increasingly severe weather patterns. Scientists attribute these deadly deluges in Dubai, Brazil, Kenya, and other regions to human-induced climate change, exacerbated by the ongoing El Niño phenomenon.
In Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul state, heavy rains and flooding this week resulted in more than two dozen deaths and displaced roughly 10,000 individuals, with almost half now residing in shelters due to destroyed or damaged homes. Eduardo Leite, the state's governor, anticipates a rising death toll, describing the floods as "the most significant climate disaster our state has ever faced."
In Kenya, ongoing flooding since March has led to over 200 fatalities and displaced another 190,000, prompting the postponement of a planned reopening of local schools. A flash flood caused by water breaching a river tunnel under a rail line in Kenya claimed at least 48 lives on Monday, with meteorologists warning of a cyclone likely to hit Kenya and Tanzania on Friday, potentially exacerbating the situation.
Residents in Dubai continue to grapple with record-setting rainfall that caused damaging floods two weeks ago, with flights out of the city delayed and canceled as more rain fell. At least four people were killed in the floods in the UAE, and another 19 died in Oman, including 10 children who perished when their school bus was swept away.
In Texas, mandatory evacuation orders were issued for Harris County after heavy rain caused flooding and pushed Lake Conroe past record-breaking water levels last seen during Hurricane Harvey in 2017. A state of emergency was declared for the county, with more extraordinary rainstorms expected Friday evening.
While these floods are not the result of a single weather event, they share a common link: occurring during an El Niño year, which increases the likelihood of strong storms.
The El Niño phenomenon, which occurs every two to seven years, weakens winds that typically push warm surface waters across the Pacific Ocean, causing warm water to spread across the entire ocean. Some of the heat that would normally be absorbed by ocean waters is released into the atmosphere, raising global temperatures.
This, combined with human-induced climate change, has been blamed for the deadly Dubai floods.
A study from the World Weather Attribution group found that the extreme rainfall in the UAE was up to 40% heavier than it would have been in pre-Industrial Revolution climate conditions, even accounting for the El Niño year. Joyce Kimutai, a research associate at Imperial College London, noted that Kenya's extreme weather could also be attributed to climate change, as warmer oceans cause air to hold more moisture, resulting in more intense rains.